Hwaseong 1-2 Paju Citizen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Challenge, 11 Jul 2026

📅11/07/2026 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.75
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
34%
1.7
4-5 Goals
25%
3.83
6+ Goals
8%
17.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
53%
+2.0pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.1pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hwaseong EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Paju Citizen EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +69% / +69%
1.02/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
-39% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% /
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses 16.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hwaseong
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Paju Citizen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
21.07.2024 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 0-2 HT 0-1 Hwaseong Hwaseong GK3L
07.04.2024 Hwaseong Hwaseong 2-0 HT 1-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
15.07.2023 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 2-1 HT 1-0 Hwaseong Hwaseong GK3L
02.04.2023 Hwaseong Hwaseong 0-0 HT 0-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
29.10.2022 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen 3-0 HT 1-0 Hwaseong Hwaseong GK3L
05.06.2022 Hwaseong Hwaseong 1-1 HT 1-0 Paju Citizen Paju Citizen GK3L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hwaseong
1-2
AWAY Paju Citizen
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
379 Passes 228
35 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paju Citizen edged past Hwaseong 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hwaseong at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hwaseong and 1.00 for Paju Citizen.

What was the final score of Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?

Hwaseong 1-2 Paju Citizen in the South Kore - K League Challenge on 11/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hwaseong vs Paju Citizen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hwaseong win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Hwaseong 55%, draw 20%, Paju Citizen 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hwaseong) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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