Ascoli 2-1 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Pro League Cup, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.22
6+ Goals
8%
20.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ascoli EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +67%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ascoli
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Gubbio
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
26.10.2014 Ascoli Ascoli 2-2 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
09.08.2014 Gubbio Gubbio 3-4 HT 2-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTCK
27.04.2014 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 0-0 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
15.12.2013 Ascoli Ascoli 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
21.01.2012 Ascoli Ascoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTB
30.08.2011 Gubbio Gubbio 2-3 HT 0-2 Ascoli Ascoli İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ascoli
2-1
AWAY Gubbio
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ascoli vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ascoli squeezed past Gubbio 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ascoli as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ascoli had 56% of the ball to Gubbio's 44%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ascoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Ascoli and 1.50 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of Ascoli vs Gubbio?

Ascoli 2-1 Gubbio in the Italy - Pro League Cup on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ascoli vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ascoli 45%, draw 27%, Gubbio 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ascoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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