HJK Helsinki 5-1 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 11 Aug 2025

📅11/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
19%
3.64
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.89
Over 2.5
55%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.35
No
46%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
6.8
2-3 Goals
37%
2.21
4-5 Goals
25%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.31
1/2
6%
22.2
1/X
5%
12.0
X/1
12%
6.25
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.4
X/X
8%
6.39
2/1
5%
21.6
2/2
17%
3.45
2/X
6%
12.05
Value flag · X/2 at 6.4 — our 18% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.9pp
19%
Draw
24%
-5.3pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
31%
+13.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
69%
-13.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
70%
-15.8pp
46%
BTTS No
30%
+15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 40%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.18/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.07
-16% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
317 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 84%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
17.4 Crosses 16.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.91 xG 1.44
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
370 Passes 359
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
28.09.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
06.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
25.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
22.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.05.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
5-1
AWAY Ilves Tampere
3.20 xG 0.82
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
529 Passes 256
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki cruised past Ilves Tampere 5-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 19% / 41%) promised a tight game; HJK Helsinki found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 64% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 36%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 3.20 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.50 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

HJK Helsinki 5-1 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 40%, draw 19%, Ilves Tampere 41%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ilves Tampere) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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