Ilves Tampere 3-2 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.67
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
17%
5.68
X/2
12%
6.03
X/X
17%
4.57
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
13%
4.03
2/X
9%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.4pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.9pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 38%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.12/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.25
+16% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 79%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
15.0 Crosses 19.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
2W-2D-2L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.58 xG 0.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
331 Passes 373
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.09.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
06.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
25.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
22.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.05.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
23.07.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-2
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.78 xG 1.26
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
497 Passes 352
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere edged past HJK Helsinki 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 31%) promised a tight game; Ilves Tampere found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 57% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 43%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.78 to 1.26 — on chances, HJK Helsinki could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ilves Tampere and 0.83 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki?

Ilves Tampere 3-2 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 38%, draw 32%, HJK Helsinki 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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