HJK Helsinki 0-1 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.1
Over 2.5
45%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
38%
+4.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.5pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 39%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.34/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.25
+15% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
331 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
18.6 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.93 xG 1.71
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
381 Passes 299
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
25.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
22.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
21.05.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-1 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
23.07.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-2 HT 1-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
08.05.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 2-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
0-1
AWAY Ilves Tampere
0.52 xG 1.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
0 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
344 Passes 461
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere edged past HJK Helsinki 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was HJK Helsinki at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 45% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 55%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.52 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.17 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

HJK Helsinki 0-1 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 43%, draw 27%, Ilves Tampere 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Under 2.5
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