Haka 3-2 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 5 Apr 2025

Haka
3-2 HT 1-0
Gnistan
📅05/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.86
Over 2.5
56%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.7
No
42%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.39
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.65
6+ Goals
13%
14.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.65 — our 27% vs market 22.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
26.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
13%
6.52
X/2
10%
5.24
X/X
11%
4.66
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
20%
3.26
2/X
7%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
50%
-6.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
50%
+6.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
55%
+3.2pp
42%
BTTS No
45%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Haka EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
1.31/1.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.85
+11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -49%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
256 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
19.2 Crosses 23.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Haka
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Gnistan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.55 xG 1.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
408 Passes 341
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 28
28 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2025 Haka Haka 2-2 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FLK
26.10.2024 Haka Haka 3-3 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
28.07.2024 Haka Haka 1-2 HT 0-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
05.05.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 0-3 HT 0-2 Haka Haka FİN
08.09.2017 Gnistan Gnistan 1-1 HT 1-1 Haka Haka FİN2
19.07.2017 Haka Haka 2-1 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Haka
3-2
AWAY Gnistan
3.06 xG 1.62
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 11
326 Passes 205
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Haka vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Haka edged past Gnistan 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Haka found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Haka had 56% of the ball to Gnistan's 44%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 3.06 to 1.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Haka's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Haka had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Haka and 1.50 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Haka vs Gnistan?

Haka 3-2 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Haka vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Haka 34%, draw 28%, Gnistan 38%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gnistan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gnistan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
5 Apr 2025
15:00 Ilves Tampere vs HJK Helsinki Analysis →
17:00 Inter Turku vs KuPS Kuopio Analysis →
17:00 IFK Mariehamn vs Jaro Analysis →
17:00 VPS vs Oulu Analysis →
17:00 KTP Kotka vs SJK Seinajoki Analysis →