Fluminense 2-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 11 Sep 2025

📅11/09/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
4.23
6+ Goals
8%
21.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.06
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.6
X/1
17%
3.88
X/2
8%
10.9
X/X
10%
4.39
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
9%
9.85
2/X
8%
17.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 20%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.81/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.47
+18% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +51%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
25.6 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bahia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
380 Passes 368
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.08.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
10.08.2025 Bahia Bahia 3-3 HT 2-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.08.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
17.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
01.11.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-0
AWAY Bahia
1.29 xG 0.08
63% Ball Possession 37%
10 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
435 Passes 217
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 6
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense beat Bahia 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Fluminense had 63% of the ball to Bahia's 37%, shots finished 10-2, expected goals 1.29 to 0.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Bahia?

Fluminense 2-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Cup on 11/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 49%, draw 28%, Bahia 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5
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