CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay Cup, 11 Sep 2025

📅11/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.64
Over 2.5
47%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -69%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
19.06.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
21.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-3 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
10.11.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
03.05.2024 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
17.12.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
13.12.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-0 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
2-1
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
46% Ball Possession 54%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol edged past Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 46% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 54%, shots finished 21-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for CA Penarol and 1.83 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay Cup on 11/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 44%, draw 28%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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