Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Llanelli Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
53%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.89
Over 2.5
63%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.41
No
39%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
15%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
25%
-3.9pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.7pp
53%
Away Win
53%
+0.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
31%
+5.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
69%
-5.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
67%
-5.5pp
39%
BTTS No
33%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Llanelli Town EU Bookmakers 57%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +4%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/1.07
-35% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +26%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
307 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Llanelli Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
03.11.2023 Llanelli Town Llanelli Town 4-0 HT 4-0 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
27.10.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 1-2 HT 0-0 Llanelli Town Llanelli Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Llanelli Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Llanelli Town edged past Caerau (Ely) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Llanelli Town as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Llanelli Town led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Caerau (Ely) and 3.00 for Llanelli Town.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Llanelli Town?

Caerau (Ely) 1-2 Llanelli Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Llanelli Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Llanelli Town win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 21%, draw 26%, Llanelli Town 53%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Llanelli Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Llanelli Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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