İngiltere U21 2-1 Ukrayna U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — European U21, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.29
Draw
18%
5.15
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.51
Over
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
23%
5.33
2-3
41%
1.99
4-5
23%
2.68
6+
13%
6.65
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.33 — our 23% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
İngiltere U21 win — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
73%
-11.0pp
18%
Draw
16%
+2.0pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İngiltere U21 EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Ukrayna U21 EU Bookmakers 14%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
3.95/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.89
+45% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
457 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 71%
42.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
20.7 Crosses 23.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İngiltere U21
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Ukrayna U21
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 0.90
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
440 Passes 282
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.10.2023 Ukrayna U21 Ukrayna U21 3-2 HT 2-0 İngiltere U21 İngiltere U21 U21
27.03.2018 İngiltere U21 İngiltere U21 2-1 HT 1-0 Ukrayna U21 Ukrayna U21 U21
10.11.2017 Ukrayna U21 Ukrayna U21 0-2 HT 0-1 İngiltere U21 İngiltere U21 U21
15.06.2011 Ukrayna U21 Ukrayna U21 0-0 HT 0-0 İngiltere U21 İngiltere U21 U21
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İngiltere U21
2-1
AWAY Ukrayna U21
3.73 xG 0.50
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
542 Passes 268
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İngiltere U21 vs Ukrayna U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İngiltere U21 squeezed past Ukrayna U21 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had İngiltere U21 as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, İngiltere U21 had 63% of the ball to Ukrayna U21's 37%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 3.73 to 0.50 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold İngiltere U21's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, İngiltere U21 had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for İngiltere U21 and 1.00 for Ukrayna U21.

What was the final score of İngiltere U21 vs Ukrayna U21?

İngiltere U21 2-1 Ukrayna U21 in the European U21 on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İngiltere U21 vs Ukrayna U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a İngiltere U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split İngiltere U21 62%, draw 18%, Ukrayna U21 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İngiltere U21), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (İngiltere U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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