Almanya U21 2-1 Bulgaristan U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — European U21, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.16
Draw
24%
7.13
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.96
Over
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.19
No
52%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
19%
7.1
2-3
40%
2.2
4-5
29%
2.45
6+
12%
4.78
Value flag · 0-1 at 7.1 — our 19% vs market 9.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Almanya U21 win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
82%
-21.5pp
23%
Draw
11%
+12.2pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+9.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+13.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-13.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.7pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almanya U21 EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Bulgaristan U21 EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +14%
2.48/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/4.08
-12% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +131%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
553 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 78%
41.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 3.0
27.8 Crosses 2.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almanya U21
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Bulgaristan U21
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.50 xG 0.12
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
537 Passes 276
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 8
23 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.10.2023 Bulgaristan U21 Bulgaristan U21 2-3 HT 1-1 Almanya U21 Almanya U21 U21
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almanya U21
2-1
AWAY Bulgaristan U21
1.41 xG 0.70
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
490 Passes 331
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
44 Box Touches 8
35 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Almanya U21 vs Bulgaristan U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya U21 squeezed past Bulgaristan U21 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Almanya U21 as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Almanya U21 had 59% of the ball to Bulgaristan U21's 41%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.41 to 0.70.

What was the final score of Almanya U21 vs Bulgaristan U21?

Almanya U21 2-1 Bulgaristan U21 in the European U21 on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almanya U21 vs Bulgaristan U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almanya U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Almanya U21 60%, draw 23%, Bulgaristan U21 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almanya U21), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Almanya U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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