Steinbach 1-1 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-2.6pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.2pp
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
-2.5pp
38%
BTTS No
36%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Steinbach EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 43%
+20% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +30%
1.49/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/1.40
+1% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
315 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Steinbach
2W-1D-3L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.11.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 4-0 HT 4-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
03.08.2024 Steinbach Steinbach 0-2 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
04.05.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 1-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
28.10.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 0-1 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
05.04.2023 Steinbach Steinbach 4-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
24.09.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 0-2 HT 0-0 Steinbach Steinbach ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Steinbach vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Steinbach and SGV Freiberg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was SGV Freiberg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (62%) landed while over 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Steinbach and 1.33 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Steinbach vs SGV Freiberg?

Steinbach 1-1 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Steinbach vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Steinbach 33%, draw 23%, SGV Freiberg 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (SGV Freiberg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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