Bulgaristan 1-6 Türkiye — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
65%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
9.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
15.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.55
1/X
5%
23.1
X/1
6%
17.35
X/2
20%
3.79
X/X
10%
6.77
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
38%
1.57
2/X
6%
19.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.55 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
11%
+3.3pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.5pp
65%
Away Win
71%
-5.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.8pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bulgaristan EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Türkiye EU Bookmakers 75%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.24/3.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/0.25
-32% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -17%
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
210 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 523 · 85%
5.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.8
7.4 Crosses 25.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bulgaristan
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Türkiye
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 11
4 Corners 6
08.06.2015 Türkiye Türkiye 4-0 HT 0-0 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan HAZ
29.05.2012 Türkiye Türkiye 2-0 HT 1-0 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan HAZ
17.08.2005 Bulgaristan Bulgaristan 3-1 HT 3-1 Türkiye Türkiye HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bulgaristan
1-6
AWAY Türkiye
0.41 xG 1.77
22% Ball Possession 78%
4 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
121 Passes 628
61% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bulgaristan vs Türkiye
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Türkiye swept aside Bulgaristan 6-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Türkiye as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 6-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bulgaristan had 22% of the ball to Türkiye's 78%, shots finished 4-18, expected goals 0.41 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Türkiye led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bulgaristan and 2.33 for Türkiye.

What was the final score of Bulgaristan vs Türkiye?

Bulgaristan 1-6 Türkiye in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bulgaristan vs Türkiye?

Before kick-off our model rated an Türkiye win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Bulgaristan 14%, draw 21%, Türkiye 65%. The final score 1-6 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Türkiye), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Türkiye) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DKE More World Cup Qualifiers
11 Oct 2025
00:00 Surinam vs Guatemala Analysis →
01:00 Bermuda vs Trinidad & Tobago Analysis →
02:00 Curaçao vs Jamaika Analysis →
04:00 El Salvador vs Panama Analysis →
16:00 Letonya vs Andorra Analysis →
19:00 Macaristan vs Ermenistan Analysis →