Monagas 2-3 Estudiantes De Merida — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 11 Nov 2024

📅11/11/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monagas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.03/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.39
+4% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.6 Crosses 18.3
3.4 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monagas
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 1.37
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
233 Passes 278
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.11.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-0 HT 1-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
23.08.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 2-1 HT 2-1 Monagas Monagas VEN
02.03.2024 Monagas Monagas 3-2 HT 1-1 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
19.08.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 0-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
19.03.2023 Monagas Monagas 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
02.07.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 1-0 Monagas Monagas VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monagas
2-3
AWAY Estudiantes De Merida
2.12 xG 1.48
32% Ball Possession 68%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
107 Passes 317
62% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 8
POST-MATCH Monagas vs Estudiantes De Merida
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estudiantes De Merida edged past Monagas 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Monagas at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Monagas had 32% of the ball to Estudiantes De Merida's 68%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 2.12 to 1.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Monagas.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estudiantes De Merida led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monagas and 1.50 for Estudiantes De Merida.

What was the final score of Monagas vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Monagas 2-3 Estudiantes De Merida in the Venezuela - Premier League on 11/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monagas vs Estudiantes De Merida?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monagas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Monagas 42%, draw 29%, Estudiantes De Merida 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monagas) ✗ Under 2.5
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