York City 4-1 Rochdale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 11 Nov 2025

📅11/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.86
6+ Goals
10%
8.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.84
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
30.0
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
12%
5.16
X/2
10%
7.23
X/X
8%
5.48
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
16%
4.8
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.0 — our 6% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.4pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME York City EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Rochdale EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +25%
1.50/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.96
-1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +47%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
260 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME York City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rochdale
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
4 Passes 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.10.2025 Rochdale Rochdale 1-2 HT 0-0 York City York City FAK
25.03.2025 Rochdale Rochdale 0-4 HT 0-1 York City York City İBSL
20.08.2024 York City York City 1-0 HT 1-0 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
16.12.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 0-0 HT 0-0 York City York City İBSL
28.08.2023 York City York City 1-3 HT 1-1 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
05.04.2014 Rochdale Rochdale 0-0 HT 0-0 York City York City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME York City
4-1
AWAY Rochdale
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH York City vs Rochdale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

York City cruised past Rochdale 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had York City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, York City had 55% of the ball to Rochdale's 45%, shots finished 18-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, York City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for York City and 0.67 for Rochdale.

What was the final score of York City vs Rochdale?

York City 4-1 Rochdale in the England - National League on 11/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for York City vs Rochdale?

Before kick-off our model rated a York City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split York City 44%, draw 24%, Rochdale 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (York City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (York City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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