Merthyr Town 3-1 South Shields — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 11 Nov 2025

📅11/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.51
Over
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.34
2-3
40%
1.99
4-5
26%
2.56
6+
13%
5.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.7pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.1pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.8pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY South Shields EU Bookmakers 51%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.99/2.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.19
-24% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merthyr Town
3-1
AWAY South Shields
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs South Shields
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town saw off South Shields 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was South Shields at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Merthyr Town had 35% of the ball to South Shields's 65%, shots finished 8-17.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs South Shields?

Merthyr Town 3-1 South Shields in the England - Conference on 11/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs South Shields?

Before kick-off our model rated an South Shields win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 35%, draw 23%, South Shields 42%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South Shields) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Shields) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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