İsveç 2-1 Estonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 12 Jan 2024

📅12/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.42
Draw
31%
4.34
Away
14%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
2.15
Over
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.91
2-3
44%
1.82
4-5
24%
3.07
6+
10%
10.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.91 — our 22% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.66
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
10%
19.25
X/1
13%
3.48
X/2
6%
15.1
X/X
9%
6.44
2/1
11%
22.6
2/2
4%
12.2
2/X
12%
20.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
İsveç win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
67%
-11.6pp
31%
Draw
20%
+10.3pp
14%
Away Win
13%
+1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.3pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İsveç EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Estonya EU Bookmakers 16%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
2.14/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/2.37
+12% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +29%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
467 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 72%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.1
19.0 Crosses 10.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İsveç
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Estonya
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.96 xG 0.31
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
487 Passes 235
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
19.11.2023 İsveç İsveç 2-0 HT 1-0 Estonya Estonya AVŞE
09.09.2023 Estonya Estonya 0-5 HT 0-3 İsveç İsveç AVŞE
31.03.2021 İsveç İsveç 1-0 HT 1-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ
04.09.2014 İsveç İsveç 2-0 HT 2-0 Estonya Estonya HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İsveç
2-1
AWAY Estonya
0.85 xG 0.47
71% Ball Possession 29%
9 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
510 Passes 147
86% Pass Accuracy 62%
27 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İsveç vs Estonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İsveç edged past Estonya 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İsveç as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, İsveç had 71% of the ball to Estonya's 29%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 0.85 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, İsveç had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for İsveç and 0.00 for Estonya.

What was the final score of İsveç vs Estonya?

İsveç 2-1 Estonya in the Friendlies on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İsveç vs Estonya?

Before kick-off our model rated a İsveç win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split İsveç 55%, draw 31%, Estonya 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İsveç), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İsveç) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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