Sturm Graz 2-1 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 12 Jan 2024

Sturm Graz
2-1 HT 2-1
Rijeka
📅12/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2023/2024

Sturm Graz vs Rijeka Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.96
Over 2.5
49%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.38
No
53%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
6.04
2-3 Goals
37%
2.04
4-5 Goals
22%
2.46
6+ Goals
11%
5.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.04 — our 30% vs market 11.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.1pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
30%
+21.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
70%
-21.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
68%
-21.9pp
53%
BTTS No
32%
+21.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturm Graz v Rijeka — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 39%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-21% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 80%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
25.0 Crosses –
0.7 Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz nicked a narrow win over Rijeka 2-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Sturm Graz found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Rijeka?

Sturm Graz 2-1 Rijeka in the Friendlies on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 40%, draw 28%, Rijeka 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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