Illescas 2-1 Union Sur Yaiza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+3.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illescas EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
3.07/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/5.00
+119% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +105% / -76%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
288 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 6.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illescas
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
01.09.2024 Union Sur Yaiza 2-1 HT 2-0 Illescas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Illescas
2-1
AWAY Union Sur Yaiza
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Illescas vs Union Sur Yaiza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Illescas squeezed past Union Sur Yaiza 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Illescas as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Illescas had 46% of the ball to Union Sur Yaiza's 54%, shots finished 15-7.

What was the final score of Illescas vs Union Sur Yaiza?

Illescas 2-1 Union Sur Yaiza in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illescas vs Union Sur Yaiza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Illescas win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Illescas 51%, draw 24%, Union Sur Yaiza 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Illescas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Illescas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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