Orapa Utd 1-2 USM Alger — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Konfederasyon Cup, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
9.57
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
58%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.4
No
65%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.7
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.01
6+ Goals
9%
9.93
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 32% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
38%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
8%
+13.0pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.6pp
58%
Away Win
76%
-17.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.3pp
35%
BTTS Yes
38%
-2.7pp
65%
BTTS No
62%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orapa Utd EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY USM Alger EU Bookmakers 80%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
244 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 468 · 84%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.5 Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orapa Utd
0W-0D-1L
AWAY USM Alger
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 6.00
0.00 xG 4.54
30% Ball Possession 70%
0 Total Shots 27
0 Shots on Target 11
0 Corners 12
187 Passes 510
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
1 Box Touches 40
0 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 0
27.11.2024 USM Alger USM Alger 6-0 HT 4-0 Orapa Utd Orapa Utd CAFKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orapa Utd
1-2
AWAY USM Alger
0.99 xG 1.79
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
296 Passes 377
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orapa Utd vs USM Alger
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

USM Alger edged past Orapa Utd 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had USM Alger as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Orapa Utd had 45% of the ball to USM Alger's 55%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.99 to 1.79.

What was the final score of Orapa Utd vs USM Alger?

Orapa Utd 1-2 USM Alger in the CAF Konfederasyon Cup on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orapa Utd vs USM Alger?

Before kick-off our model rated an USM Alger win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Orapa Utd 21%, draw 21%, USM Alger 58%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (USM Alger) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (USM Alger) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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