Porto II 1-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.56
6+ Goals
11%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 31% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 31%
-10% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.63/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.29
+5% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.5 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Portimonense
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
09.08.2015 Porto II Porto II 1-2 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
08.03.2015 Porto II Porto II 0-1 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
01.10.2014 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Porto II Porto II POR2
12.01.2014 Porto II Porto II 2-0 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
1-2
AWAY Portimonense
1.83 xG 1.26
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
416 Passes 147
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense nicked a narrow win over Porto II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Porto II at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Porto II had 67% of the ball to Portimonense's 33%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.83 to 1.26 — the balance of chances actually favoured Porto II.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Portimonense led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Porto II and 1.25 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Portimonense?

Porto II 1-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Porto II 41%, draw 28%, Portimonense 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Porto II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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