Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
16%
4.14
6+ Goals
9%
21.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 34% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.63/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.30
-7% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.4 Crosses 17.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Chaves
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
26.09.2015 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 0-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-1
AWAY Chaves
1.23 xG 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
360 Passes 288
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria and Chaves couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 52% of the ball to Chaves's 48%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.23 to 0.67.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Chaves?

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 38%, draw 28%, Chaves 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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