Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Gençlerbirliği — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 12 Feb 2025

📅12/02/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.51
Over 2.5
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.26
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
15%
5.59
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
20%
4.29
X/2
17%
7.45
X/X
13%
3.68
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
10%
6.56
2/X
6%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.0pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.2pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gençlerbirliği EU Bookmakers 28%
+10% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.42/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.29
+19% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
17.5 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
296 Passes 268
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.09.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-0 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
21.04.2024 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
03.12.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-1 HT 1-0 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
07.05.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği T1L
11.12.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 1-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
08.05.2022 Gençlerbirliği Gençlerbirliği 2-1 HT 1-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-2
AWAY Gençlerbirliği
0.75 xG 0.81
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
279 Passes 130
72% Pass Accuracy 56%
24 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Gençlerbirliği
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gençlerbirliği nicked a narrow win over Erzurumspor FK 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Erzurumspor FK at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 63% of the ball to Gençlerbirliği's 37%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.75 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gençlerbirliği led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.33 for Gençlerbirliği.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Gençlerbirliği?

Erzurumspor FK 1-2 Gençlerbirliği in the Turkey - 1st Division on 12/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Gençlerbirliği?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 41%, draw 26%, Gençlerbirliği 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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