Chester 0-1 Southport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
24%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under
57%
1.8
Over
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No Pick
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
32%
3.12
2-3
42%
1.78
4-5
18%
3.76
6+
8%
16.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.12 — our 32% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
62%
-13.5pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.1pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+8.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.3pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chester EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Southport EU Bookmakers 19%
-9% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +15%
1.44/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.93
-24% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chester
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Southport
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.10.2023 Southport Southport 0-2 HT 0-1 Chester Chester İCON
10.04.2023 Southport Southport 1-2 HT 0-0 Chester Chester İCON
13.09.2022 Chester Chester 1-0 HT 0-0 Southport Southport İCON
05.02.2022 Chester Chester 5-0 HT 1-0 Southport Southport İCON
30.10.2021 Southport Southport 3-2 HT 3-1 Chester Chester İCON
01.01.2020 Chester Chester 4-0 HT 1-0 Southport Southport İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chester
0-1
AWAY Southport
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 4
1 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Chester vs Southport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southport edged past Chester 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Chester at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Chester had 60% of the ball to Southport's 40%, shots finished 13-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chester had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Chester and 0.67 for Southport.

What was the final score of Chester vs Southport?

Chester 0-1 Southport in the England - Conference on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chester vs Southport?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chester win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Chester 49%, draw 27%, Southport 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chester) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chester) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
12 Mar 2024
22:45 Eastbourne Borough vs Dover Athletic Analysis →
22:45 Scarborough Athletic vs Curzon Ashton Analysis →
22:45 Worthing vs Farnborough Analysis →
22:45 Weston-super-Mare vs St. Albans City Analysis →
22:45 Maidstone United vs Chelmsford City Analysis →
22:45 Hereford FC vs Alfreton Town Analysis →