Worthing 2-3 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.84
6+ Goals
11%
7.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.73 — our 25% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.3pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Worthing EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -18%
1.97/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.72
+28% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Worthing
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Farnborough
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.11.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 0-3 HT 0-0 Worthing Worthing İCON
18.04.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 0-1 HT 0-1 Worthing Worthing İCON
08.10.2022 Worthing Worthing 1-2 HT 1-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Worthing
2-3
AWAY Farnborough
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 11
9 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Worthing vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough edged past Worthing 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Worthing at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Worthing had 61% of the ball to Farnborough's 39%, shots finished 13-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Worthing had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Worthing and 0.67 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Worthing vs Farnborough?

Worthing 2-3 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Worthing vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Worthing win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Worthing 44%, draw 24%, Farnborough 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Worthing) ✗ BTTS No
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