Arsenal 1-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

Arsenal
1-1 HT 0-0
Brentford
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 29% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.11
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
15%
4.24
X/2
8%
10.1
X/X
15%
5.67
2/1
7%
22.0
2/2
15%
7.93
2/X
6%
16.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-13.5pp
28%
Draw
24%
+5.0pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+8.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +13%
1.75/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.46
+7% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
448 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 76%
35.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
22.1 Crosses 14.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Arsenal vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Brentford
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.54 xG 1.12
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
469 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
38 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.01.2025 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.03.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
25.11.2023 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
27.09.2023 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNLK
11.02.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 1-1 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
18.09.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-3 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 1-1 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
1-1
AWAY Brentford
0.96 xG 0.24
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 5
418 Passes 219
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal and Brentford couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Arsenal had 64% of the ball to Brentford's 36%, shots finished 14-3, expected goals 0.96 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Arsenal and 0.50 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Brentford?

Arsenal 1-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 43%, draw 28%, Brentford 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
12 Apr 2025
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