Manchester City 5-2 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 26% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.09
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.5
X/1
18%
4.33
X/2
10%
10.2
X/X
9%
5.99
2/1
6%
21.0
2/2
12%
7.72
2/X
7%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-11.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.7pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +17%
1.81/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.47
+0% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +45%
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
514 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
16.5 Crosses 14.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Crystal Palace
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.07 xG 0.86
72% Ball Possession 28%
17 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
677 Passes 213
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-2 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
06.04.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-4 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
16.12.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 2-2 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
11.03.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
27.08.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 4-2 HT 0-2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
14.03.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
5-2
AWAY Crystal Palace
3.81 xG 1.82
68% Ball Possession 32%
21 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 4
673 Passes 278
91% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 10
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City ran out comfortable winners over Crystal Palace 5-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Manchester City had 68% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 32%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 3.81 to 1.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Manchester City and 1.33 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Crystal Palace?

Manchester City 5-2 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 46%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 29%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
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