Crystal Palace 2-4 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

Crystal Palace
2-4 HT 1-1
Manchester City
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
6.35
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
51%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.02
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
12.35
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
6%
20.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
11%
15.35
X/2
18%
3.5
X/X
11%
6.54
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.66
2/X
6%
19.5
Value flag · X/1 at 15.35 — our 11% vs market 3.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
13%
+12.6pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.0pp
51%
Away Win
68%
-16.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crystal Palace v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 72%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
0.83/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/0.81
-29% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +17%
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
231 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 501 · 85%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 38.2
15.0 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.5

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Manchester City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.73 xG 1.93
29% Ball Possession 71%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
208 Passes 638
72% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 40
6 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 2-2 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
11.03.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
27.08.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 4-2 HT 0-2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
14.03.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
30.10.2021 Manchester City Manchester City 0-2 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
01.05.2021 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-2 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Crystal Palace 2-4 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
2-4
AWAY Manchester City
1.08 xG 1.91
25% Ball Possession 75%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 9
215 Passes 772
79% Pass Accuracy 91%
13 Box Touches 40
8 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City got the better of Crystal Palace 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 25% of the ball to Manchester City's 75%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 1.08 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.50 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?

Crystal Palace 2-4 Manchester City in the England - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 25%, draw 23%, Manchester City 51%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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