Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

Aston Villa
3-3 HT 1-0
Brentford
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.89
6+ Goals
12%
8.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.03
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✓
12%
14.15
X/1
14%
4.13
X/2
7%
10.6
X/X
8%
5.81
2/1
6%
21.25
2/2
12%
7.52
2/X
5%
14.8
Value flag · 1/X at 14.15 — our 12% vs market 4.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
2.16/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.50
+10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 74%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
18.0 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Aston Villa vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Brentford
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
368 Passes 268
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-2 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
30.07.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-3 HT 3-2 Brentford Brentford HAZPL
22.04.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
23.10.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-0 HT 3-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
02.01.2022 Brentford Brentford 2-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
28.08.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP

Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
3-3
AWAY Brentford
1.52 xG 1.56
70% Ball Possession 30%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
488 Passes 168
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 16
37 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa and Brentford couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Aston Villa had 70% of the ball to Brentford's 30%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.52 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aston Villa and 1.33 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Aston Villa 3-3 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 48%, draw 25%, Brentford 27%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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