Luton Town 2-1 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
50%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.09
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.21
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
21.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
12%
8.09
X/2
15%
4.69
X/X
9%
5.78
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
23%
2.45
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.0 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.1pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.8pp
50%
Away Win
49%
+0.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.2pp
61%
BTTS Yes
62%
-1.8pp
39%
BTTS No
38%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 53%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.91/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.95/1.15
+52% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +71%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 80%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
29.3 Crosses 12.3
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bournemouth
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.18 xG 1.16
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
204 Passes 390
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.03.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 4-3 HT 0-3 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
16.12.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 0-1 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
15.01.2022 Luton Town Luton Town 3-2 HT 2-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
25.09.2021 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-1 HT 2-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
16.01.2021 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
19.12.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
2-1
AWAY Bournemouth
1.46 xG 0.41
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
300 Passes 222
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
28 Box Touches 24
31 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town nicked a narrow win over Bournemouth 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bournemouth at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (61%) came in.

On the day, Luton Town had 56% of the ball to Bournemouth's 44%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.46 to 0.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Luton Town and 1.50 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Bournemouth?

Luton Town 2-1 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 29%, draw 21%, Bournemouth 50%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bournemouth) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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