Everton 1-0 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 6 Apr 2024

Everton
1-0 HT 1-0
Burnley
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Everton vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.32
6+ Goals
12%
12.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.32 — our 27% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.25
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
17%
4.08
X/2
6%
9.09
X/X
6%
5.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.15
2/2
12%
6.86
2/X
6%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 12% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-2.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Everton v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Everton EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -5%
1.78/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.56
-8% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
24.6 Crosses 16.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Everton vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Everton
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Burnley
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.82 xG 0.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
326 Passes 330
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Burnley Burnley 0-2 HT 0-2 Everton Everton İNP
01.11.2023 Everton Everton 3-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNLK
06.04.2022 Burnley Burnley 3-2 HT 1-2 Everton Everton İNP
13.09.2021 Everton Everton 3-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
13.03.2021 Everton Everton 1-2 HT 1-2 Burnley Burnley İNP
05.12.2020 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 1-1 Everton Everton İNP

Everton 1-0 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Everton
1-0
AWAY Burnley
0.94 xG 0.46
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 5
200 Passes 407
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Everton vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Everton edged past Burnley 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Everton as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Everton had 37% of the ball to Burnley's 63%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.94 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Everton had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Everton and 1.17 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Everton vs Burnley?

Everton 1-0 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Everton vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Everton win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Everton 52%, draw 22%, Burnley 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Everton) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Everton) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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