Leganes 0-1 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 12 Apr 2025

Leganes
0-1 HT 0-0
Barcelona
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Leganes vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.78
Draw
23%
5.15
Away
58%
1.3
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.85
No
43%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.44
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
17%
6.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
16.5
1/2 EV+ ✗
16%
20.8
1/X
6%
24.65
X/1
4%
20.05
X/2
16%
3.92
X/X
7%
8.8
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
26%
1.47
2/X
10%
21.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.8 — our 16% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 61% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
10%
+8.8pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.5pp
58%
Away Win
73%
-15.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
50%
+6.5pp
43%
BTTS No
50%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leganes v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 77%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +6%
0.52/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/1.09
-49% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -4%
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 547 · 87%
9.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.3
12.6 Crosses 15.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Leganes vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.67 xG 1.72
24% Ball Possession 76%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
170 Passes 710
67% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Box Touches 29
7 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 0-1 HT 0-1 Leganes Leganes İS1
16.06.2020 Barcelona Barcelona 2-0 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
30.01.2020 Barcelona Barcelona 5-0 HT 2-0 Leganes Leganes İSPK
23.11.2019 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
20.01.2019 Barcelona Barcelona 3-1 HT 1-0 Leganes Leganes İS1
26.09.2018 Leganes Leganes 2-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Leganes 0-1 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
0-1
AWAY Barcelona
0.72 xG 1.35
34% Ball Possession 66%
6 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
223 Passes 527
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona squeezed past Leganes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leganes had 34% of the ball to Barcelona's 66%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.72 to 1.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leganes and 2.17 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Barcelona?

Leganes 0-1 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Leganes 19%, draw 23%, Barcelona 58%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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