ATK Mohun Bagan 2-1 Bengaluru — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 12 Apr 2025

ATK Mohun Bagan
2-1 HT 0-0
Bengaluru
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
India - Super League – 2025/2026

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.86
Over
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
3.17
2-3
42%
1.76
4-5
20%
3.43
6+
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.17 — our 28% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ATK Mohun Bagan v Bengaluru — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bengaluru EU Bookmakers 26%
+20% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
1.31/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.28
+31% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
291 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
16.4 Crosses 17.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bengaluru
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 1.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
303 Passes 310
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2025 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
28.09.2024 Bengaluru Bengaluru 3-0 HT 2-0 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
11.04.2024 Bengaluru Bengaluru 0-4 HT 0-1 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
27.09.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-0 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
18.03.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 2-2 HT 1-1 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL
05.02.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-2 HT 0-0 Bengaluru Bengaluru HİNSL

ATK Mohun Bagan 2-1 Bengaluru — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan
2-1
AWAY Bengaluru
1.90 xG 1.19
38% Ball Possession 62%
20 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
207 Passes 400
65% Pass Accuracy 78%
32 Box Touches 30
25 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ATK Mohun Bagan nicked a narrow win over Bengaluru 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had ATK Mohun Bagan as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ATK Mohun Bagan had 38% of the ball to Bengaluru's 62%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 1.90 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ATK Mohun Bagan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 1.17 for Bengaluru.

What was the final score of ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru?

ATK Mohun Bagan 2-1 Bengaluru in the India - Super League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Bengaluru?

Before kick-off our model rated a ATK Mohun Bagan win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split ATK Mohun Bagan 48%, draw 24%, Bengaluru 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ATK Mohun Bagan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →