HNK Gorica 3-2 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.11
2-3 Goals
34%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
5.44
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
22%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.7pp
34%
Draw
31%
+3.3pp
33%
Away Win
39%
-6.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -22%
1.03/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/0.94
+13% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
16.7 Crosses 14.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Istra 1961
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.63 xG 1.73
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
218 Passes 412
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.01.2025 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
27.10.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
10.08.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
17.03.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.12.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
23.09.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
3-2
AWAY Istra 1961
1.25 xG 1.19
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 2
243 Passes 385
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica nicked a narrow win over Istra 1961 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 34% / 33% — and on the day HNK Gorica made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 41% of the ball to Istra 1961's 59%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.25 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, HNK Gorica had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for HNK Gorica and 0.33 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?

HNK Gorica 3-2 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 33%, draw 34%, Istra 1961 33%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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