FC Akhmat Grozny 2-1 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.48
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.58
6+ Goals
12%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.02
1/2
7%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
16%
5.07
X/2
10%
6.99
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.97
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.44/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.27
+1% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
19.4 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rostov
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.99 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
227 Passes 313
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 27
9 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
26.10.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-3 HT 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
09.12.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
22.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
28.05.2023 Rostov Rostov 3-2 HT 2-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
27.11.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
29.10.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-2 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
2-1
AWAY Rostov
1.00 xG 0.55
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
265 Passes 228
69% Pass Accuracy 65%
13 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny nicked a narrow win over Rostov 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Akhmat Grozny as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 51% of the ball to Rostov's 49%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.00 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 2.17 for Rostov.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Rostov?

FC Akhmat Grozny 2-1 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 45%, draw 26%, Rostov 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
12 Apr 2025
12:00 FK Orenburg vs CSKA Moskova Analysis →
14:30 Pari Nizhny Novgorod vs Dinamo Moscow Analysis →
17:00 Rubin Kazan vs Lokomotiv Moscow Analysis →