FK Orenburg 0-2 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.84
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 25% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.55
1/2
6%
24.65
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
9%
6.76
X/2 EV+ ✓
21%
5.33
X/X
14%
4.93
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
15%
3.14
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · X/2 at 5.33 — our 21% vs market 14.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+0.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 45%
+14% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.84/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.40
+40% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
25.0 Crosses 14.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.71 xG 1.33
52% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
383 Passes 331
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 5-1 HT 3-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
02.03.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
02.11.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
25.08.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
26.07.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-6 HT 0-4 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
07.05.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
0-2
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.17 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
355 Passes 226
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova saw off FK Orenburg 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CSKA Moskova as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 60% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 40%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.17 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FK Orenburg and 3.00 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs CSKA Moskova?

FK Orenburg 0-2 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated an CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 31%, draw 27%, CSKA Moskova 42%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moskova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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