Nafta 1-1 Olimpija Ljubljana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
6.35
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
53%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.78
Over
51%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No Pick
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1
28%
2.9
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.7
6+
8%
16.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
13%
+9.8pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.2pp
53%
Away Win
67%
-13.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nafta EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana EU Bookmakers 71%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
0.25/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.82
-74% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +12%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
265 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nafta
0W-0D-5L
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 3-0 HT 1-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
19.10.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-1 HT 0-1 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVN
05.08.2024 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana 2-0 HT 1-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
08.03.2023 Nafta Nafta 1-3 HT 0-3 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVNK
28.04.2021 Nafta Nafta 0-1 HT 0-0 Olimpija Ljubljana Olimpija Ljubljana SLVNK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nafta
1-1
AWAY Olimpija Ljubljana
33% Ball Possession 67%
5 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Olimpija Ljubljana at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Nafta had 33% of the ball to Olimpija Ljubljana's 67%, shots finished 5-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Olimpija Ljubljana led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Nafta and 2.00 for Olimpija Ljubljana.

What was the final score of Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Nafta 1-1 Olimpija Ljubljana in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Olimpija Ljubljana win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nafta 23%, draw 25%, Olimpija Ljubljana 53%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Olimpija Ljubljana) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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