Djurgarden vs Kalmar Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Djurgarden v Kalmar — Team-Based Signals
Djurgarden vs Kalmar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 0-0
Djurgarden
İSÇ
3-1
HT 2-0
Kalmar
İSÇ
3-2
HT 2-0
Kalmar
İSÇ
1-0
HT 0-0
Djurgarden
İSÇ
Djurgarden 3-2 Kalmar — Actual Match Statistics
Djurgarden squeezed past Kalmar 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Djurgarden as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Djurgarden had 71% of the ball to Kalmar's 29%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 3.67 to 1.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Djurgarden's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kalmar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Djurgarden and 1.50 for Kalmar.
What was the final score of Djurgarden vs Kalmar?
Djurgarden 3-2 Kalmar in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs Kalmar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 55%, draw 22%, Kalmar 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Djurgarden) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.