Malmö FF 3-1 GAIS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
59%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
20%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.91
Over
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.3
2-3
42%
1.75
4-5
22%
3.33
6+
9%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.27
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
17%
4.19
X/2
8%
8.68
X/X
12%
5.17
2/1
8%
22.65
2/2
7%
6.84
2/X
4%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Malmö FF win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
53%
+5.8pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.4pp
20%
Away Win
23%
-2.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY GAIS EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.59/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.41
-8% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
408 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
20.3 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malmö FF
3W-2D-1L
AWAY GAIS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.14 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
516 Passes 320
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2025 Malmö FF Malmö FF 2-1 HT 0-1 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
05.07.2025 GAIS GAIS 0-0 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
18.09.2024 GAIS GAIS 0-0 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
16.05.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-0 HT 0-0 GAIS GAIS İSÇ
20.02.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 5-1 HT 4-1 GAIS GAIS İSÇK
01.03.2021 GAIS GAIS 1-0 HT 1-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
3-1
AWAY GAIS
1.10 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
278 Passes 359
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs GAIS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF saw off GAIS 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Malmö FF as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Malmö FF had 46% of the ball to GAIS's 54%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.10 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Malmö FF and 0.50 for GAIS.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs GAIS?

Malmö FF 3-1 GAIS in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs GAIS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 59%, draw 21%, GAIS 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malmö FF), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5
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