Paderborn 4-3 Magdeburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
28%
2.58
6+ Goals
13%
6.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.34
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
19%
4.82
X/2
7%
8.44
X/X
12%
6.1
2/1
8%
19.65
2/2
9%
5.53
2/X
6%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
51%
+1.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
25%
-2.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.2pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Magdeburg EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -20%
2.12/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.98
+3% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
21.6 Crosses 14.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Magdeburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.43 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
297 Passes 382
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2025 Magdeburg Magdeburg 0-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
10.05.2025 Paderborn Paderborn 2-1 HT 1-1 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
14.12.2024 Magdeburg Magdeburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
03.03.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 0-0 HT 0-0 Magdeburg Magdeburg AL2
22.09.2023 Magdeburg Magdeburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
11.03.2023 Magdeburg Magdeburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
4-3
AWAY Magdeburg
1.79 xG 1.36
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 7
293 Passes 447
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Magdeburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn squeezed past Magdeburg 4-3. Half-time: 3-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 42% of the ball to Magdeburg's 58%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.79 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Paderborn and 0.50 for Magdeburg.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Magdeburg?

Paderborn 4-3 Magdeburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Magdeburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 53%, draw 24%, Magdeburg 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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