ES Tunis 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.04
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
48%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
29%
-5.8pp
23%
Away Win
22%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 26%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.62/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/1.12
-3% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 76%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
14.2 Crosses 10.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Tunis
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.62 xG 0.96
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
215 Passes 382
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 12
11 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.04.2025 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
01.04.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis CAFŞL
26.04.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 0-1 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis AŞL
20.04.2024 ES Tunis ES Tunis 1-0 HT 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns AŞL
22.06.2017 ES Tunis ES Tunis 0-0 HT 0-0 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns CAFŞL
02.06.2017 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-2 HT 1-1 ES Tunis ES Tunis CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ES Tunis
0-1
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
1.39 xG 0.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
291 Passes 277
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 7
20 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ES Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mamelodi Sundowns edged past ES Tunis 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was ES Tunis at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, ES Tunis had 52% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 48%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.39 to 0.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured ES Tunis.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, ES Tunis had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ES Tunis and 0.33 for Mamelodi Sundowns.

What was the final score of ES Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

ES Tunis 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns in the CAF Champions League on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 54%, draw 23%, Mamelodi Sundowns 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (ES Tunis) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ES Tunis) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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