Naples 2-0 Sarasota Paradise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 12 Apr 2026

📅12/04/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.75
Over 2.5
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.9pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naples EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Sarasota Paradise EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+25% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
299 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.3 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naples
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sarasota Paradise
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 1.75
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
383 Passes 155
81% Pass Accuracy 61%
16 Box Touches 11
7 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
19.03.2025 Sarasota Paradise Sarasota Paradise 1-2 HT 0-0 Naples ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naples
2-0
AWAY Sarasota Paradise
1.26 xG 0.71
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 301
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Naples vs Sarasota Paradise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naples beat Sarasota Paradise 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Naples as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Naples had 50% of the ball to Sarasota Paradise's 50%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.26 to 0.71.

What was the final score of Naples vs Sarasota Paradise?

Naples 2-0 Sarasota Paradise in the USA - USL League 1 on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naples vs Sarasota Paradise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naples win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Naples 45%, draw 26%, Sarasota Paradise 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naples), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Naples) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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