Ponferradina 2-1 Real Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 12 May 2024

Ponferradina
2-1 HT 2-1
Real Union
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2023/2024

Ponferradina vs Real Union Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.8
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.64
Over 2.5
35%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.45
6+ Goals
8%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 37% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-7.4pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.3pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
57%
+7.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
43%
-7.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.9pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ponferradina v Real Union — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Union EU Bookmakers 25%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -30%
0.74/0.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/3.46
-15% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 69%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
18.0 Crosses 9.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Ponferradina vs Real Union Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponferradina
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Real Union
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 22
1 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Real Union Real Union 1-1 HT 0-0 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3

Ponferradina 2-1 Real Union — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponferradina
2-1
AWAY Real Union
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ponferradina vs Real Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina squeezed past Real Union 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ponferradina as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ponferradina had 53% of the ball to Real Union's 47%, shots finished 11-6.

What was the final score of Ponferradina vs Real Union?

Ponferradina 2-1 Real Union in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponferradina vs Real Union?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ponferradina 44%, draw 31%, Real Union 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponferradina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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