Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
28%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
14%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.6pp
28%
Away Win
33%
-5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -16%
1.36/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.11
+0% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ordabasy Shymkent
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tobol
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2 Corners 11
25.02.2024 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 1-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZSK
04.11.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 0-1 HT 0-0 Tobol Tobol KAZKK
27.08.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-0 HT 0-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
16.04.2023 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 4-1 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
27.08.2022 Tobol Tobol 4-0 HT 2-0 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent KAZP
09.04.2022 Ordabasy Shymkent Ordabasy Shymkent 3-1 HT 2-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ordabasy Shymkent squeezed past Tobol 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ordabasy Shymkent as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ordabasy Shymkent and 1.33 for Tobol.

What was the final score of Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Ordabasy Shymkent 1-0 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Super League on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ordabasy Shymkent vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ordabasy Shymkent win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ordabasy Shymkent 41%, draw 31%, Tobol 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ordabasy Shymkent) ✓ Under 2.5
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