Qingdao Red Lions 3-4 Chongqing Tongliang Long — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 12 Jul 2025

📅12/07/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
5.91
Draw
30%
4.08
Away
52%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.86
Over 2.5
44%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.14
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.46
6+ Goals
7%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 32% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
4%
X/2
22%
X/X
18%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
14%
+4.2pp
30%
Draw
22%
+8.6pp
52%
Away Win
64%
-12.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Qingdao Red Lions EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Chongqing Tongliang Long EU Bookmakers 69%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.13/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.76
+4% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +113%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
226 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
18.1 Crosses 23.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Qingdao Red Lions
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.77 xG 1.91
28% Ball Possession 72%
3 Total Shots 26
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 10
94 Passes 404
52% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 36
6 Crosses 42
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2025 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 HT 1-1 Qingdao Red Lions Qingdao Red Lions ÇİN2
21.07.2024 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 HT 0-1 Qingdao Red Lions Qingdao Red Lions ÇİN2
23.03.2024 Qingdao Red Lions Qingdao Red Lions 1-0 HT 0-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Qingdao Red Lions
3-4
AWAY Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.83 xG 2.58
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 10
124 Passes 252
58% Pass Accuracy 76%
9 Box Touches 33
5 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Qingdao Red Lions vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chongqing Tongliang Long edged past Qingdao Red Lions 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chongqing Tongliang Long as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Qingdao Red Lions had 38% of the ball to Chongqing Tongliang Long's 62%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 1.83 to 2.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Qingdao Red Lions had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Qingdao Red Lions and 0.67 for Chongqing Tongliang Long.

What was the final score of Qingdao Red Lions vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?

Qingdao Red Lions 3-4 Chongqing Tongliang Long in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Qingdao Red Lions vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chongqing Tongliang Long win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Qingdao Red Lions 18%, draw 30%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 52%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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