Puebla 2-3 Atlas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Jul 2025

Puebla
2-3 HT 1-1
Atlas
📅12/07/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.6
Over
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.44
2-3
36%
1.74
4-5
19%
4.48
6+
11%
24.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlas The Market 36%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -12%
1.61/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.31
+3% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
281 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.8 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atlas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.07 xG 0.99
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
289 Passes 359
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 Atlas Atlas 3-2 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
20.07.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
09.03.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
29.09.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-3 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
18.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-4 HT 0-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
21.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-3
AWAY Atlas
1.91 xG 1.85
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
321 Passes 125
81% Pass Accuracy 65%
29 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Atlas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas squeezed past Puebla 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Atlas found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puebla had 67% of the ball to Atlas's 33%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.91 to 1.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Puebla and 2.33 for Atlas.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Atlas?

Puebla 2-3 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Atlas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Puebla 38%, draw 28%, Atlas 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Puebla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
12 Jul 2025
00:00 FC Juarez vs Club America Analysis →
06:05 Tijuana vs Queretaro Analysis →