Puebla vs Atlas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Puebla v Atlas — Team-Based Signals
Puebla vs Atlas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Puebla 2-3 Atlas — Actual Match Statistics
Atlas squeezed past Puebla 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Atlas found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Puebla had 67% of the ball to Atlas's 33%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.91 to 1.85.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Puebla and 2.33 for Atlas.
What was the final score of Puebla vs Atlas?
Puebla 2-3 Atlas in the Mexico - Primera on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Puebla vs Atlas?
Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Puebla 38%, draw 28%, Atlas 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.