Tijuana 1-0 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Jul 2025

📅12/07/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under
54%
2.15
Over
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No Pick
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.03
2-3
41%
1.84
4-5
22%
2.91
6+
10%
8.78
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.03 — our 27% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
14%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.5pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana The Market 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro The Market 21%
-13% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +21%
1.75/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.57
-12% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
33.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
23.1 Crosses 18.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Queretaro
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.01
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
398 Passes 181
81% Pass Accuracy 65%
32 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
25.01.2025 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
06.07.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-2 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
10.02.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
22.10.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
31.07.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 0-1 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro CONLK
08.04.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-2 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
1-0
AWAY Queretaro
0.92 xG 0.18
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
411 Passes 262
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 4
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana squeezed past Queretaro 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tijuana had 60% of the ball to Queretaro's 40%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 0.92 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Queretaro led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tijuana and 1.17 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Queretaro?

Tijuana 1-0 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 50%, draw 26%, Queretaro 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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