Atlas 3-2 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 16 Feb 2025

Atlas
3-2 HT 1-1
Puebla
📅16/02/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.23
6+ Goals
10%
22.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -5%
1.38/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.54
-19% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.0 Crosses 17.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Puebla
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.11 xG 1.28
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 Passes 295
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Puebla Puebla 1-2 HT 0-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
09.03.2024 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 1-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
29.09.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-3 HT 1-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
18.03.2023 Puebla Puebla 0-4 HT 0-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
21.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
12.02.2022 Puebla Puebla 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
3-2
AWAY Puebla
1.52 xG 0.40
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
360 Passes 180
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas squeezed past Puebla 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 32%) promised a tight game; Atlas found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atlas had 63% of the ball to Puebla's 37%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.52 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atlas and 1.33 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Puebla?

Atlas 3-2 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atlas 40%, draw 27%, Puebla 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
16 Feb 2025
04:00 Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul Analysis →
06:10 Toluca vs Guadalajara Analysis →