Toluca vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Guadalajara
MEK
1-2
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 2-1 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca edged past Guadalajara 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Toluca had 59% of the ball to Guadalajara's 41%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.47.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Toluca and 1.00 for Guadalajara.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Guadalajara?
Toluca 2-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Guadalajara?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Toluca 51%, draw 24%, Guadalajara 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.