Krasnodar 0-1 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 12 Jul 2025

📅12/07/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
27%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.96
2-3 Goals
45%
1.82
4-5 Goals
17%
4.14
6+ Goals
7%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.78
1/2
5%
32.5
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
18%
5.72
X/2
8%
6.17
X/X
15%
4.06
2/1
5%
31.0
2/2
14%
4.26
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
12.55
Value flag · 2/X at 12.55 — our 11% vs market 5.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
34%
Draw
30%
+3.6pp
27%
Away Win
33%
-5.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
Crosses 18.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
3W-0D-3L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.92 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
404 Passes 312
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2025 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
18.09.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-0 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
10.08.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
31.07.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
10.12.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
29.10.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
0-1
AWAY CSKA Moskova
1.06 xG 0.79
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
252 Passes 159
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
34 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova edged past Krasnodar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 34% / 27% — and on the day CSKA Moskova made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Krasnodar had 59% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 41%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.06 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Krasnodar and 0.83 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs CSKA Moskova?

Krasnodar 0-1 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Super Cup on 12/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 39%, draw 34%, CSKA Moskova 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Krasnodar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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